The SMA market operates in two simultaneous tiers that most market summaries collapse into one misleading average. The correctly-priced, walkable, turnkey segment in Centro Historico and Guadalupe appreciates at double digits and moves in under 90 days. The overpriced, car-dependent segment sits for 300 or more days and requires 10 to 15 percent negotiating discounts to move. The citywide average is the mathematical product of both tiers combined, and it describes neither of them accurately.
The volume surge of 24.68 percent in 2025 was driven by the mid-market, specifically the $300,000 to $800,000 band where North American buyer demand remained consistent throughout the year. The average price decline of 12.6 percent was driven almost entirely by the contraction in $2 million-plus transactions, which fell from 19 in 2024 to 12 in 2025. Removing seven ultra-luxury transactions from a market of 504 total sales produces an average decline of $56,000 to $80,000 without any underlying price weakness in the segments that account for the majority of activity.
January 2026 data represents the strongest early-year signal in several years. Closings up 8 percent and dollar volume up more than 20 percent are consistent with the beginning of a bull-case scenario, where snowbird season demand converts to transactions at an above-average rate. Whether this trajectory holds through Q2 will be the defining market story of 2026.
The sale-to-ask ratio across the market runs 93 to 97 percent, meaning most properties close 3 to 7 percent below asking price. Properties with 36 to 90 day timelines are closing at 96 to 99 percent of ask. Properties sitting for 300 or more days are typically requiring 10 to 15 percent reductions before closing. The negotiating environment is not uniform. It is specific to location, pricing accuracy, and property condition.
